2030 Outlook for Global Cargo: ARIMA Predictions for Maritime Trade
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Keywords:
Shipping demand, Cargo volume, Maritime trade, ARIMA forecast, Dry bulkAbstract
Given the high capital requirements of the maritime transportation sector, errors in decision-making can lead to significant financial consequences. As a result, accurate future projections are crucial for minimizing risk. This study aims to provide decision support mechanisms for industry stakeholders and policymakers by forecasting the outlook for seaborne cargoes—categorized as Dry, Crude Oil, and Other Tanker cargoes—through to 2030. The dataset covers the period from 1970 to 2021, consisting of 52 annual observations. Based on our ARIMA estimates, Dry cargo volumes are projected to grow by 11.1% by 2030 compared to 2021, whereas Other Tanker cargo volumes are expected to decrease by 1.2%, and Crude Oil tanker volumes are anticipated to decline by 10.7%. The study's projections offer a crucial understanding of the evolving cargo landscape, highlighting potential shifts in global trade patterns and the need for strategic planning in the maritime industry to maintain competitiveness and efficiency. These findings will help maritime sector participants and policymakers make informed decisions regarding fleet management, infrastructure investments, and regulatory adjustments to adapt to shifting cargo demands.
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