2030 Küresel Yük Görünümü: Deniz Ticareti İçin ARIMA Tahminleri


Özet Görüntüleme: 88 / PDF İndirme: 82

Yazarlar

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Denizcilik talebi , Yük hacmi , Deniz ticareti , ARIMA tahmini, Kuru yük

Özet

Deniz taşımacılığı sektörünün yüksek sermaye gereksinimleri göz önüne alındığında, karar verme sürecindeki hatalar önemli mali sonuçlara yol açabilir. Sonuç olarak, doğru gelecek tahminleri riski en aza indirmek için çok önemlidir. Bu çalışma, Kuru Yük, Ham Petrol ve Diğer Tanker yükleri olarak sınıflandırılan denizyolu yüklerinin 2030 yılına kadar olan görünümünü tahmin ederek sektör paydaşları ve politika yapıcılar için karar destek mekanizmaları sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Veri seti, 52 yıllık gözlemden oluşan 1970-2021 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) tahminlerimize göre, Kuru yük hacimlerinin 2021 yılına kıyasla 2030 yılına kadar %11,1 oranında artması beklenirken, Diğer Tanker yük hacimlerinin %1,2 oranında azalması ve Ham Petrol tanker hacimlerinin %10,7 oranında düşmesi öngörülmektedir. Çalışmanın tahminleri, gelişen yük ortamına ilişkin önemli bir anlayış sunmakta, küresel ticaret modellerindeki potansiyel değişimleri ve rekabet gücü ile verimliliği korumak için denizcilik sektöründe stratejik planlama ihtiyacını vurgulamaktadır. Bu bulgular, denizcilik sektörü katılımcılarının ve politika yapıcıların filo yönetimi, altyapı yatırımları ve değişen yük taleplerine uyum sağlamak için mevzuat düzenlemelerine ilişkin bilinçli kararlar almalarına yardımcı olacaktır.

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Yayınlanmış

2024-11-08

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

Özispa, N., Açık, A., & Baran Kasapoğlu, E. (2024). 2030 Küresel Yük Görünümü: Deniz Ticareti İçin ARIMA Tahminleri. Journal of Recycling Economy & Sustainability Policy, 3(2), 38–50. Geliş tarihi gönderen https://respjournal.com/index.php/pub/article/view/48