Investigating the Mineral Rents in the Bayesian Linear Regression Model
Keywords:
mineral rents, merchandise exports, Bayesian linear regression, Thailand, resource managementAbstract
This research investigates the determinants of mineral rents in Thailand, focusing on how key economic variables namely merchandise exports (MES), rural population growth (RPG), taxes on exports (TET), inflation (ICP), goods and services expense (GSE), and general government expenditure (GGE) impact mineral rents as a percentage of GDP. Using a Bayesian linear regression model, the study analyzes annual data from 1972 to 2020 obtained from the World Bank. The results reveal that merchandise exports and inflation are the most significant predictors of mineral rents. MES shows a moderate positive relationship, indicating that higher exports lead to increased mineral rents. Similarly, inflation has a strong positive association, suggesting that inflationary pressures can enhance the nominal value of mineral resources. In contrast, RPG, TET, GSE, and GGE exhibit weaker relationships with mineral rents, implying that these factors play a less dominant role in determining mineral rent levels.
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